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WDSC Wolves vs Brisbane Roar II — Queensland NPL 2026

WDSC Wolves
WDSC Wolves
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Brisbane Roar II
Brisbane Roar II
6/22/2024Queensland NPLQueensland NPL · Round 16Carmichael Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

WDSC Wolves33%
×Draw21%
Brisbane Roar II45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

WDSC Wolves
1.72
Brisbane Roar II
2.02

Brisbane Roar II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 91 away

creates per match

WDSC Wolves
1.65
Brisbane Roar II
1.92

allows per match

WDSC Wolves
2.13
Brisbane Roar II
1.79

finishing

WDSC Wolves+0.00on par
Brisbane Roar II+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

WDSC Wolves ↓

Brisbane Roar II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

WDSC Wolves or draw
55%
WDSC Wolves or Brisbane Roar II
79%
Draw or Brisbane Roar II
67%

Winning margin

WDSC Wolves wins by 2+
17%
Brisbane Roar II wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

WDSC Wolves 1+ goals
82%
WDSC Wolves 2+ goals
51%
WDSC Wolves 3+ goals
25%
Brisbane Roar II 1+ goals
87%
Brisbane Roar II 2+ goals
60%
Brisbane Roar II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

WDSC Wolves (draw refunded)
43%
Brisbane Roar II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

WDSC Wolves at home — creates 1.65, concedes 2.13 · 31 matches

Brisbane Roar II away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.79 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

WDSC Wolves attack 1.65 + Brisbane Roar II defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.72

Brisbane Roar II attack 1.92 + WDSC Wolves defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

WDSC Wolves scores more
33%
level
21%
Brisbane Roar II scores more
45%

Brisbane Roar II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Brisbane Roar II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: WDSC Wolves vs Brisbane Roar II

Brisbane Roar II beat WDSC Wolves 3-2 in Queensland NPL on June 22, 2024.

The match was played at Carmichael Park in Brisbane.