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Wazito FC vs Vihiga United FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Wazito FC
Wazito FC
FT
0 – 1
Vihiga United FC
Vihiga United FC
7/8/2018FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 22Camp Toyoyo (Nairobi)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Wazito FC36%
×Draw30%
Vihiga United FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wazito FC
1.09
Vihiga United FC
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 51 away

creates per match

Wazito FC
1.01
Vihiga United FC
0.78

allows per match

Wazito FC
1.31
Vihiga United FC
1.18

finishing

Wazito FC+0.00on par
Vihiga United FC+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wazito FC ↓

Vihiga United FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wazito FC or draw
66%
Wazito FC or Vihiga United FC
70%
Draw or Vihiga United FC
64%

Winning margin

Wazito FC wins by 2+
15%
Vihiga United FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wazito FC 1+ goals
66%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
30%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
10%
Vihiga United FC 1+ goals
65%
Vihiga United FC 2+ goals
28%
Vihiga United FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Wazito FC (draw refunded)
52%
Vihiga United FC (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wazito FC at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

Vihiga United FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wazito FC attack 1.01 + Vihiga United FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Vihiga United FC attack 0.78 + Wazito FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Wazito FC scores more
36%
level
30%
Vihiga United FC scores more
34%

Wazito FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Wazito FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wazito FC vs Vihiga United FC

Vihiga United FC beat Wazito FC 1-0 in FKF Premier League on July 8, 2018.

The match was played at Camp Toyoyo (Nairobi).