Wazito FC 1–0 Ulinzi Stars: Result & Stats

Wazito FC

FT

1 – 0

Ulinzi Stars

4/22/2023

FKF Premier League · Round 24Muhoroni Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Wazito FC32%

×Draw30%

Ulinzi Stars37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wazito FCExpected goals in this matchUlinzi Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.08

Wazito FC

0.98

Ulinzi Stars

1.08

Ulinzi Stars creates 10% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 146 away

1.01

creates per match

0.86

1.31

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Wazito FC

1.01

Ulinzi Stars

0.86

allows per match

Wazito FC

1.31

Ulinzi Stars

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wazito FC+0.00on par

Ulinzi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wazito FC ↓

Ulinzi Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Wazito FC or draw

63%

Wazito FC or Ulinzi Stars

70%

Draw or Ulinzi Stars

68%

Winning margin

Wazito FC wins by 2+

12%

Ulinzi Stars wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Wazito FC 1+ goals

62%

Wazito FC 2+ goals

26%

Wazito FC 3+ goals

8%

Ulinzi Stars 1+ goals

66%

Ulinzi Stars 2+ goals

29%

Ulinzi Stars 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Wazito FC (draw refunded)

46%

Ulinzi Stars (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wazito FC at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

Ulinzi Stars away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.95 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wazito FC attack 1.01 + Ulinzi Stars defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.98

Ulinzi Stars attack 0.86 + Wazito FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Wazito FC scores more

32%

level

30%

Ulinzi Stars scores more

37%

Ulinzi Stars at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Ulinzi Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff