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Wazito FC vs Nzoia Sugar — FKF Premier League 2018

Wazito FC
Wazito FC
FT
2 – 1
Nzoia Sugar
Nzoia Sugar
1/22/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 7Kasarani Annex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Wazito FC36%
×Draw28%
Nzoia Sugar36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wazito FC
1.17
Nzoia Sugar
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 111 away

creates per match

Wazito FC
1.01
Nzoia Sugar
1.02

allows per match

Wazito FC
1.31
Nzoia Sugar
1.32

finishing

Wazito FC+0.00on par
Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wazito FC ↓

Nzoia Sugar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Wazito FC or draw
64%
Wazito FC or Nzoia Sugar
72%
Draw or Nzoia Sugar
64%

Winning margin

Wazito FC wins by 2+
15%
Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Wazito FC 1+ goals
69%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
33%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
11%
Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals
69%
Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals
33%
Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wazito FC (draw refunded)
50%
Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wazito FC at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

Nzoia Sugar away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.32 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wazito FC attack 1.01 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.17

Nzoia Sugar attack 1.02 + Wazito FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Wazito FC scores more
36%
level
28%
Nzoia Sugar scores more
36%

Wazito FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Wazito FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Wazito FC 2–1 Nzoia Sugar

Wazito FC beat Nzoia Sugar 2-1 in FKF Premier League on January 22, 2021.

The match was played at Kasarani Annex Stadium in Nairobi.