Nzoia Sugar 2–1 Wazito FC: Result & Stats

Nzoia Sugar

FT

2 – 1

Wazito FC

8/8/2021

FKF Premier League · Round 29Sudi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Nzoia Sugar42%

×Draw29%

Wazito FC29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nzoia SugarExpected goals in this matchWazito FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.94

Nzoia Sugar

1.21

Wazito FC

0.94

Nzoia Sugar creates 29% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 77 away

0.96

creates per match

0.75

1.12

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Nzoia Sugar

0.96

Wazito FC

0.75

allows per match

Nzoia Sugar

1.12

Wazito FC

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nzoia Sugar+0.00on par

Wazito FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nzoia Sugar ↓

Wazito FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nzoia Sugar or draw

71%

Nzoia Sugar or Wazito FC

71%

Draw or Wazito FC

58%

Winning margin

Nzoia Sugar wins by 2+

18%

Wazito FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nzoia Sugar 1+ goals

70%

Nzoia Sugar 2+ goals

34%

Nzoia Sugar 3+ goals

12%

Wazito FC 1+ goals

61%

Wazito FC 2+ goals

24%

Wazito FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nzoia Sugar (draw refunded)

60%

Wazito FC (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nzoia Sugar at home — creates 0.96, concedes 1.12 · 113 matches

Wazito FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.45 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nzoia Sugar attack 0.96 + Wazito FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.21

Wazito FC attack 0.75 + Nzoia Sugar defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Nzoia Sugar scores more

42%

level

29%

Wazito FC scores more

29%

Nzoia Sugar at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Nzoia Sugar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff