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Wazito FC vs Nairobi City Stars — FKF Premier League 2018

Wazito FC
Wazito FC
FT
2 – 1
Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
1/3/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 5Utalii Football Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Wazito FC34%
×Draw29%
Nairobi City Stars37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wazito FC
1.10
Nairobi City Stars
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 80 home / 84 away

creates per match

Wazito FC
1.01
Nairobi City Stars
1.02

allows per match

Wazito FC
1.31
Nairobi City Stars
1.20

finishing

Wazito FC+0.00on par
Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wazito FC ↓

Nairobi City Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Wazito FC or draw
63%
Wazito FC or Nairobi City Stars
71%
Draw or Nairobi City Stars
66%

Winning margin

Wazito FC wins by 2+
14%
Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Wazito FC 1+ goals
67%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
30%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
10%
Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
69%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
33%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wazito FC (draw refunded)
48%
Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wazito FC at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

Nairobi City Stars away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.20 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wazito FC attack 1.01 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.02 + Wazito FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Wazito FC scores more
34%
level
29%
Nairobi City Stars scores more
37%

Nairobi City Stars at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Nairobi City Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FKF Premier League: Wazito FC 2–1 Nairobi City Stars

Wazito FC beat Nairobi City Stars 2-1 in FKF Premier League on January 3, 2021.

The match was played at Utalii Football Field in Nairobi.