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Nairobi City Stars vs Wazito FC — FKF Premier League 2018

Nairobi City Stars
Nairobi City Stars
FT
3 – 1
Wazito FC
Wazito FC
10/21/2021FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 3Thika Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Nairobi City Stars46%
×Draw28%
Wazito FC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nairobi City Stars
1.31
Wazito FC
0.92

Nairobi City Stars creates 42% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 77 away

creates per match

Nairobi City Stars
1.18
Wazito FC
0.75

allows per match

Nairobi City Stars
1.09
Wazito FC
1.45

finishing

Nairobi City Stars+0.00on par
Wazito FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nairobi City Stars ↓

Wazito FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Nairobi City Stars or draw
74%
Nairobi City Stars or Wazito FC
72%
Draw or Wazito FC
54%

Winning margin

Nairobi City Stars wins by 2+
21%
Wazito FC wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nairobi City Stars 1+ goals
73%
Nairobi City Stars 2+ goals
38%
Nairobi City Stars 3+ goals
14%
Wazito FC 1+ goals
60%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
23%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Nairobi City Stars (draw refunded)
63%
Wazito FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nairobi City Stars at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 85 matches

Wazito FC away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.45 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nairobi City Stars attack 1.18 + Wazito FC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.31

Wazito FC attack 0.75 + Nairobi City Stars defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Nairobi City Stars scores more
46%
level
28%
Wazito FC scores more
26%

Nairobi City Stars at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Nairobi City Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Nairobi City Stars vs Wazito FC

Nairobi City Stars beat Wazito FC 3-1 in FKF Premier League on October 21, 2021.

The match was played at Thika Municipal Stadium in Thika.