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Wazito FC vs Mathare United — FKF Premier League 2018

Wazito FC
Wazito FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mathare United
Mathare United
6/25/2023FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 31Muhoroni Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Wazito FC39%
×Draw28%
Mathare United34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wazito FC
1.26
Mathare United
1.15

Wazito FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 128 away

creates per match

Wazito FC
1.01
Mathare United
0.98

allows per match

Wazito FC
1.31
Mathare United
1.51

finishing

Wazito FC+0.00on par
Mathare United+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wazito FC ↓

Mathare United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Wazito FC or draw
66%
Wazito FC or Mathare United
72%
Draw or Mathare United
61%

Winning margin

Wazito FC wins by 2+
17%
Mathare United wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Wazito FC 1+ goals
72%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
36%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
13%
Mathare United 1+ goals
68%
Mathare United 2+ goals
32%
Mathare United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wazito FC (draw refunded)
54%
Mathare United (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wazito FC at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

Mathare United away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.51 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wazito FC attack 1.01 + Mathare United defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.26

Mathare United attack 0.98 + Wazito FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Wazito FC scores more
39%
level
28%
Mathare United scores more
34%

Wazito FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Wazito FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wazito FC vs Mathare United

Mathare United beat Wazito FC 1-0 in FKF Premier League on June 25, 2023.

The match was played at Muhoroni Stadium in Muhoroni.