Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wazito FC vs Kenya Police — FKF Premier League 2018

Wazito FC
Wazito FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Kenya Police
Kenya Police
2/26/2022FKF Premier LeagueFKF Premier League · Round 17Nyayo National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Wazito FC28%
×Draw29%
Kenya Police43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wazito FC
0.96
Kenya Police
1.25

Kenya Police creates 30% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 10 away

creates per match

Wazito FC
1.01
Kenya Police
1.20

allows per match

Wazito FC
1.31
Kenya Police
0.90

finishing

Wazito FC+0.00on par
Kenya Police+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wazito FC ↓

Kenya Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Wazito FC or draw
57%
Wazito FC or Kenya Police
71%
Draw or Kenya Police
72%

Winning margin

Wazito FC wins by 2+
10%
Kenya Police wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Wazito FC 1+ goals
62%
Wazito FC 2+ goals
25%
Wazito FC 3+ goals
7%
Kenya Police 1+ goals
71%
Kenya Police 2+ goals
36%
Kenya Police 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wazito FC (draw refunded)
40%
Kenya Police (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wazito FC at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

Kenya Police away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wazito FC attack 1.01 + Kenya Police defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.96

Kenya Police attack 1.20 + Wazito FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wazito FC scores more
28%
level
29%
Kenya Police scores more
43%

Kenya Police at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kenya Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wazito FC vs Kenya Police

Kenya Police beat Wazito FC 3-2 in FKF Premier League on February 26, 2022.

The match was played at Nyayo National Stadium in Nairobi.