Wayside Celtic 1–3 Wexford: Result & Stats

Wayside Celtic

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Wexford

Darragh O'Connor 52'

C. Curtis 88'

A. Dobbs 51'

M. Rowe 11'

7/21/2024

FAI Cup · 2nd RoundJackson Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wayside Celtic46%

×Draw21%

Wexford34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wayside CelticExpected goals in this matchWexford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.81

Wayside Celtic

2.13

Wexford

1.81

Wayside Celtic creates 18% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

2.67

creates per match

1.30

2.33

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Wayside Celtic

2.67

Wexford

1.30

allows per match

Wayside Celtic

2.33

Wexford

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wayside Celtic+0.00on par

Wexford+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wayside Celtic ↓

Wexford →

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Wayside Celtic or draw

66%

Wayside Celtic or Wexford

79%

Draw or Wexford

54%

Winning margin

Wayside Celtic wins by 2+

26%

Wexford wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Wayside Celtic 1+ goals

88%

Wayside Celtic 2+ goals

63%

Wayside Celtic 3+ goals

35%

Wexford 1+ goals

84%

Wexford 2+ goals

54%

Wexford 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Wayside Celtic (draw refunded)

58%

Wexford (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Wayside Celtic at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Wexford away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Wayside Celtic attack 2.67 + Wexford defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.13

Wexford attack 1.30 + Wayside Celtic defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wayside Celtic scores more

46%

level

21%

Wexford scores more

34%

Wayside Celtic at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wayside Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

M. Rowe

51'

A. Dobbs

52'

Darragh O'Connor

58'

K. Corbally← K. Harnett

76'

L. Clucas← C. Fay

76'

E. Boylan← C. Kelly

80'

D. Lynch← S. Bolton

80'

A. O'Brien-Coone← E. Douglas

80'

C. Curtis← T. Oluwa

88'

C. Curtis

90'

C. Canty← R. Doherty

90'

J. Crawford← L. Lovic

90'

R. Webb← M. Hanratty

Wayside

Wexford

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

76'▲L. Clucas←▼C. Fay

76'▲E. Boylan←▼C. Kelly

80'▲D. Lynch←▼S. Bolton

80'▲A. O'Brien-Coone←▼E. Douglas

90'▲C. Canty←▼R. Doherty

Wayside Celtic substitutes

ClucasBoylanLynchO'Brien-CooneCantyHoutonHowickMasonZambra

Manager: J. Keddy

58'▲K. Corbally←▼K. Harnett

80'▲C. Curtis←▼T. Oluwa

90'▲J. Crawford←▼L. Lovic

90'▲R. Webb←▼M. Hanratty

Wexford substitutes

CorballyCurtisCrawfordWebbLynchO'MalleyKellyMcDonaghGaul

FAI Cup: Wayside Celtic 1–3 Wexford

Wexford beat Wayside Celtic 3-1 in FAI Cup on July 21, 2024.

Goals: M. Rowe (11'), A. Dobbs (51'), Darragh O'Connor (52'), C. Curtis (88').

The match was played at Jackson Park in Kilternan.

Wayside Celtic vs Wexford — FAI Cup 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FAI Cup: Wayside Celtic 1–3 Wexford