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Wathba vs Horriya — Premier League 2019

Wathba
Wathba
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Horriya
Horriya
3/15/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Khaled bin Walid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Wathba61%
×Draw25%
Horriya14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wathba
1.56
Horriya
0.58

Wathba creates 169% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 39 away

creates per match

Wathba
1.50
Horriya
0.62

allows per match

Wathba
0.54
Horriya
1.62

finishing

Wathba+0.00on par
Horriya+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wathba ↓

Horriya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Wathba or draw
86%
Wathba or Horriya
75%
Draw or Horriya
39%

Winning margin

Wathba wins by 2+
33%
Horriya wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Wathba 1+ goals
79%
Wathba 2+ goals
46%
Wathba 3+ goals
21%
Horriya 1+ goals
44%
Horriya 2+ goals
12%
Horriya 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Wathba (draw refunded)
82%
Horriya (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wathba at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.54 · 80 matches

Horriya away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.62 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wathba attack 1.50 + Horriya defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56

Horriya attack 0.62 + Wathba defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Wathba scores more
61%
level
25%
Horriya scores more
14%

Wathba at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Wathba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wathba vs Horriya

Wathba beat Horriya 2-1 in Premier League on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Khaled bin Walid Stadium in Homs.