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Wathba vs Efrin — Premier League 2019

Wathba
Wathba
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Efrin
Efrin
5/4/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 25Khaled bin Walid Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Wathba69%
×Draw20%
Efrin11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wathba
2.02
Efrin
0.66

Wathba creates 206% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 13 away

creates per match

Wathba
1.50
Efrin
0.77

allows per match

Wathba
0.54
Efrin
2.54

finishing

Wathba+0.00on par
Efrin+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wathba ↓

Efrin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Wathba or draw
89%
Wathba or Efrin
80%
Draw or Efrin
31%

Winning margin

Wathba wins by 2+
44%
Efrin wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Wathba 1+ goals
87%
Wathba 2+ goals
60%
Wathba 3+ goals
33%
Efrin 1+ goals
48%
Efrin 2+ goals
14%
Efrin 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Wathba (draw refunded)
86%
Efrin (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wathba at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.54 · 80 matches

Efrin away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wathba attack 1.50 + Efrin defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.02

Efrin attack 0.77 + Wathba defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Wathba scores more
69%
level
20%
Efrin scores more
11%

Wathba at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Wathba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Wathba 4–1 Efrin

Wathba beat Efrin 4-1 in Premier League on May 4, 2022.

The match was played at Khaled bin Walid Stadium in Homs.