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Wathba vs Al Taliya — Premier League 2019

Wathba
Wathba
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Taliya
Al Taliya
4/28/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Wathba50%
×Draw29%
Al Taliya21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wathba
1.32
Al Taliya
0.75

Wathba creates 76% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 82 away

creates per match

Wathba
1.50
Al Taliya
0.96

allows per match

Wathba
0.54
Al Taliya
1.15

finishing

Wathba+0.00on par
Al Taliya+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wathba ↓

Al Taliya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wathba or draw
79%
Wathba or Al Taliya
71%
Draw or Al Taliya
50%

Winning margin

Wathba wins by 2+
24%
Al Taliya wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Wathba 1+ goals
73%
Wathba 2+ goals
38%
Wathba 3+ goals
15%
Al Taliya 1+ goals
53%
Al Taliya 2+ goals
17%
Al Taliya 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Wathba (draw refunded)
70%
Al Taliya (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wathba at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.54 · 80 matches

Al Taliya away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.15 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wathba attack 1.50 + Al Taliya defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

Al Taliya attack 0.96 + Wathba defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Wathba scores more
50%
level
29%
Al Taliya scores more
21%

Wathba at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wathba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wathba 1 – 0 Al Taliya

Wathba beat Al Taliya 1-0 in Premier League on April 28, 2026.