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Watford W vs Plymouth Argyle W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Watford W
Watford W
FT
5 – 0
Plymouth Argyle W
Plymouth Argyle W
1/5/2020FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundThe Orbital Fasteners Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Watford W66%
×Draw16%
Plymouth Argyle W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford W
3.00
Plymouth Argyle W
1.57

Watford W creates 91% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Watford W
3.71
Plymouth Argyle W
1.71

allows per match

Watford W
1.43
Plymouth Argyle W
2.29

finishing

Watford W+0.00on par
Plymouth Argyle W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford W ↓

Plymouth Argyle W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Watford W or draw
82%
Watford W or Plymouth Argyle W
84%
Draw or Plymouth Argyle W
34%

Winning margin

Watford W wins by 2+
46%
Plymouth Argyle W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Watford W 1+ goals
95%
Watford W 2+ goals
79%
Watford W 3+ goals
56%
Plymouth Argyle W 1+ goals
79%
Plymouth Argyle W 2+ goals
46%
Plymouth Argyle W 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Watford W (draw refunded)
78%
Plymouth Argyle W (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford W at home — creates 3.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Plymouth Argyle W away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford W attack 3.71 + Plymouth Argyle W defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 3.00

Plymouth Argyle W attack 1.71 + Watford W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Watford W scores more
66%
level
16%
Plymouth Argyle W scores more
18%

Watford W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Watford W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Watford W vs Plymouth Argyle W

Watford W beat Plymouth Argyle W 5-0 in FA Women's Cup on January 5, 2020.

The match was played at The Orbital Fasteners Stadium in Kings Langley, Hertfordshire.