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Watford W vs Milton Keynes Dons W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Watford W
Watford W
FT
3 – 1
Milton Keynes Dons W
Milton Keynes Dons W
4/4/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundThe Orbital Fasteners Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Watford W77%
×Draw12%
Milton Keynes Dons W11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford W
3.75
Milton Keynes Dons W
1.42

Watford W creates 164% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Watford W
3.71
Milton Keynes Dons W
1.40

allows per match

Watford W
1.43
Milton Keynes Dons W
3.80

finishing

Watford W+0.00on par
Milton Keynes Dons W+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford W ↓

Milton Keynes Dons W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Watford W or draw
89%
Watford W or Milton Keynes Dons W
88%
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons W
23%

Winning margin

Watford W wins by 2+
60%
Milton Keynes Dons W wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Watford W 1+ goals
97%
Watford W 2+ goals
88%
Watford W 3+ goals
70%
Milton Keynes Dons W 1+ goals
76%
Milton Keynes Dons W 2+ goals
41%
Milton Keynes Dons W 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Watford W (draw refunded)
88%
Milton Keynes Dons W (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford W at home — creates 3.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Milton Keynes Dons W away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford W attack 3.71 + Milton Keynes Dons W defence 3.80 → ÷2 → 3.75

Milton Keynes Dons W attack 1.40 + Watford W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Watford W scores more
77%
level
12%
Milton Keynes Dons W scores more
11%

Watford W at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Watford W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Watford W vs Milton Keynes Dons W

Watford W beat Milton Keynes Dons W 3-1 in FA Women's Cup on April 4, 2021.

The match was played at The Orbital Fasteners Stadium in Kings Langley, Hertfordshire.