Watford W 7–1 Fulham W: Result & Stats

Watford W

7 – 1

Fulham W

11/13/2022

FA Women's Cup · 1st RoundRuislip Manor Sports & Social Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Watford W75%

×Draw13%

Fulham W12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Watford WExpected goals in this matchFulham W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.60

1.46

Watford W

3.60

Fulham W

1.46

Watford W creates 147% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

3.71

creates per match

1.50

1.43

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Watford W

3.71

Fulham W

1.50

allows per match

Watford W

1.43

Fulham W

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford W+0.00on par

Fulham W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over87
Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford W ↓

Fulham W →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–02%

1–14%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–05%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

87%13%3.5

72%28%4.5

54%46%

Double chance

Watford W or draw

88%

Watford W or Fulham W

87%

Draw or Fulham W

25%

Winning margin

Watford W wins by 2+

57%

Fulham W wins by 2+

Team goals

Watford W 1+ goals

97%

Watford W 2+ goals

86%

Watford W 3+ goals

67%

Fulham W 1+ goals

77%

Fulham W 2+ goals

43%

Fulham W 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Watford W (draw refunded)

86%

Fulham W (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

71%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Watford W at home — creates 3.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Fulham W away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Watford W attack 3.71 + Fulham W defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 3.60

Fulham W attack 1.50 + Watford W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 75%?"

Watford W scores more

75%

level

13%

Fulham W scores more

12%

Watford W at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Watford W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff