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Watford W vs Coventry United W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Watford W
Watford W
FT
0 – 4
Coventry United W
Coventry United W
12/12/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundThe Orbital Fasteners Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Watford W65%
×Draw16%
Coventry United W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford W
3.27
Coventry United W
1.80

Watford W creates 82% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Watford W
3.71
Coventry United W
2.17

allows per match

Watford W
1.43
Coventry United W
2.83

finishing

Watford W+0.00on par
Coventry United W+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford W ↓

Coventry United W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
73%27%4.5
55%45%

Double chance

Watford W or draw
81%
Watford W or Coventry United W
84%
Draw or Coventry United W
35%

Winning margin

Watford W wins by 2+
46%
Coventry United W wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Watford W 1+ goals
96%
Watford W 2+ goals
83%
Watford W 3+ goals
62%
Coventry United W 1+ goals
83%
Coventry United W 2+ goals
54%
Coventry United W 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Watford W (draw refunded)
77%
Coventry United W (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford W at home — creates 3.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Coventry United W away — creates 2.17, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford W attack 3.71 + Coventry United W defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 3.27

Coventry United W attack 2.17 + Watford W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Watford W scores more
65%
level
16%
Coventry United W scores more
19%

Watford W at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Watford W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Watford W vs Coventry United W

Coventry United W beat Watford W 4-0 in FA Women's Cup on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at The Orbital Fasteners Stadium in Kings Langley, Hertfordshire.