Watford 1–0 Nottingham Forest: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nottingham Forest

A. Masina 17'

3/6/2021

Championship · Round 35Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Watford41%

×Draw28%

Nottingham Forest31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchNottingham Forest

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.05

Watford

1.25

Nottingham Forest

1.05

Watford creates 19% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 95 away

1.48

creates per match

1.16

0.95

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Watford

1.48

Nottingham Forest

1.16

allows per match

Watford

0.95

Nottingham Forest

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Nottingham Forest+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Nottingham Forest →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Watford or draw

69%

Watford or Nottingham Forest

72%

Draw or Nottingham Forest

59%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

18%

Nottingham Forest wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

71%

Watford 2+ goals

36%

Watford 3+ goals

13%

Nottingham Forest 1+ goals

65%

Nottingham Forest 2+ goals

28%

Nottingham Forest 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

57%

Nottingham Forest (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.95 · 121 matches

Nottingham Forest away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.03 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.48 + Nottingham Forest defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.25

Nottingham Forest attack 1.16 + Watford defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Watford scores more

41%

level

28%

Nottingham Forest scores more

31%

Watford at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

A. Masina

Watford · D

8.5

Match Events

10'

17'

45'

50'

57'

J. Lolley← L. Freeman

57'

Cafú← R. Yates

66'

C. Sánchez← A. Gray

80'

J. Hungbo← P. Zinckernagel

81'

T. Blackett← G. Bong

81'

L. Taylor← F. Krovinović

88'

I. Success← João Pedro

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordNottingham

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots9

7Corners7

16Fouls8

Shots

12Total Shots9

4On Target0

5Off Target6

3Blocked3

11Inside Box4

1Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

452Total Passes327

368Accurate Passes244

81%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4