Watford 1–1 Newcastle: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Newcastle

A. Doucouré 82'

S. Rondón 29'

12/29/2018

Premier League · Round 20Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Watford39%

×Draw26%

Newcastle35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchNewcastle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.32

Watford

1.40

Newcastle

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 180 away

1.21

creates per match

1.03

1.61

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Watford

1.21

Newcastle

1.03

allows per match

Watford

1.61

Newcastle

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Newcastle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Newcastle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Watford or draw

65%

Watford or Newcastle

74%

Draw or Newcastle

61%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

18%

Newcastle wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

75%

Watford 2+ goals

41%

Watford 3+ goals

17%

Newcastle 1+ goals

73%

Newcastle 2+ goals

38%

Newcastle 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

52%

Newcastle (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

Newcastle away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.59 · 180 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + Newcastle defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Newcastle attack 1.03 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Watford scores more

39%

level

26%

Newcastle scores more

35%

Watford at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

M. Ritchie

Newcastle · D

8.1

Match Events

29'

S. Rondón↳ M. Ritchie

44'

Adam Masina

46'

F. Schär← F. Fernández

54'

T. Deeney← W. Hughes

54'

A. Doucouré← Domingos Quina

66'

DeAndre Yedlin

78'

J. Holebas← A. Masina

79'

J. Shelvey← I. Hayden

82'

A. Doucouré↳ Deulofeu

90'

Fabian Schär

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordNewcastle

Overview

62%Possession38%

12Total Shots8

3Corners6

17Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots8

5On Target2

2Off Target4

5Blocked2

5Inside Box3

7Outside Box5

Passing

62%Possession38%

566Total Passes326

484Accurate Passes233

86%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

17Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4