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Watford vs Nantes — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Watford
Watford
CANC
15:00
Nantes
Nantes
7/31/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Watford11%
×Draw20%
Nantes70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watford
0.63
Nantes
2.00

Nantes creates 217% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Watford
0.75
Nantes
1.75

allows per match

Watford
2.25
Nantes
0.50

finishing

Watford+0.00on par
Nantes+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Nantes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–114%
0–214%
0–310%
0–45%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Watford or draw
30%
Watford or Nantes
80%
Draw or Nantes
89%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+
3%
Nantes wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals
47%
Watford 2+ goals
13%
Watford 3+ goals
3%
Nantes 1+ goals
86%
Nantes 2+ goals
59%
Nantes 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)
13%
Nantes (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Nantes away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 0.75 + Nantes defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.63

Nantes attack 1.75 + Watford defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Watford scores more
11%
level
20%
Nantes scores more
70%

Nantes at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Nantes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Watford vs Nantes — Match Preview

Watford face Nantes on July 31, 2021 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.