Watford 3–0 Liverpool: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Liverpool

T. Deeney 72'

I. Sarr 60', 54'

2/29/2020

Premier League · Round 28Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 112+ matches

Watford28%

×Draw24%

Liverpool49%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.72

Watford

1.24

Liverpool

1.72

Liverpool creates 39% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 199 away

1.21

creates per match

1.82

1.61

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Watford

1.21

Liverpool

1.82

allows per match

Watford

1.61

Liverpool

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Liverpool+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Watford or draw

51%

Watford or Liverpool

76%

Draw or Liverpool

72%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

11%

Liverpool wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

71%

Watford 2+ goals

35%

Watford 3+ goals

13%

Liverpool 1+ goals

82%

Liverpool 2+ goals

51%

Liverpool 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

36%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.27 · 199 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + Liverpool defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.24

Liverpool attack 1.82 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Watford scores more

28%

level

24%

Liverpool scores more

49%

Liverpool at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

I. Sarr

Watford · M

9.1

Match Events

37'

R. Pereyra← Deulofeu

54'

I. Sarr↳ A. Doucouré

60'

I. Sarr↳ T. Deeney

61'

A. Lallana← G. Wijnaldum

65'

D. Origi← A. Oxlade-Chamberlain

72'

T. Deeney↳ I. Sarr

79'

T. Minamino← Roberto Firmino

82'

I. Pussetto← I. Sarr

89'

N. Chalobah← A. Doucouré

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordLiverpool

Overview

29%Possession71%

14Total Shots7

3Corners5

4Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots7

5On Target1

7Off Target4

2Blocked2

10Inside Box3

4Outside Box4

Passing

29%Possession71%

299Total Passes732

198Accurate Passes620

66%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

4Fouls8

5Offsides1