Watford 3–3 Liverpool: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchLiverpool

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.72

Watford

1.23

Liverpool

1.72

Liverpool creates 40% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 202 away

1.21

creates per match

1.83

1.61

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Watford

1.21

Liverpool

1.83

allows per match

Watford

1.61

Liverpool

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Liverpool+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Liverpool →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Watford or draw

51%

Watford or Liverpool

76%

Draw or Liverpool

73%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

11%

Liverpool wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

71%

Watford 2+ goals

35%

Watford 3+ goals

13%

Liverpool 1+ goals

82%

Liverpool 2+ goals

51%

Liverpool 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

36%

Liverpool (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

Liverpool away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.26 · 202 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + Liverpool defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Liverpool attack 1.83 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Watford scores more

27%

level

24%

Liverpool scores more

49%

Liverpool at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Liverpool will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Roberto Firmino

Liverpool · F

8.1

Match Events

8'

S. Okaka↳ J. Holebas

18'

Kiko Femenía← D. Janmaat

29'

S. Mané↳ E. Can

32'

A. Doucouré

37'

Sadio Mané

49'

Richarlison← R. Pereyra

55'

Roberto FirminoPenalty

57'

Mohamed Salah↳ Roberto Firmino

61'

Trent Alexander-Arnold

63'

A. Gray← S. Okaka

81'

D. Origi← Roberto Firmino

86'

J. Milner← Mohamed Salah

88'

Simon Mignolet

90+1'

J. Gomez← T. Alexander-Arnold

90+3'

M. Britos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordLiverpool

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots14

3Corners3

14Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots14

4On Target5

4Off Target8

1Blocked1

6Inside Box13

3Outside Box1

Passing

45%Possession55%

395Total Passes477

277Accurate Passes352

70%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls8

0Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1