Watford 4–1 Fulham: Result & Stats | Premier League

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchFulham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.29

Watford

1.39

Fulham

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 112 home / 89 away

1.21

creates per match

0.97

1.61

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Watford

1.21

Fulham

0.97

allows per match

Watford

1.61

Fulham

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Fulham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Fulham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Watford or draw

65%

Watford or Fulham

74%

Draw or Fulham

61%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

18%

Fulham wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

75%

Watford 2+ goals

40%

Watford 3+ goals

16%

Fulham 1+ goals

72%

Fulham 2+ goals

37%

Fulham 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

53%

Fulham (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.61 · 112 matches

Fulham away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.56 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.21 + Fulham defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.39

Fulham attack 0.97 + Watford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Watford scores more

39%

level

26%

Fulham scores more

35%

Watford at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

A. Gray

Watford · F

8.1

Match Events

23'

A. Doucouré↳ W. Hughes

33'

R. Babel↳ R. Sessegnon

44'

Adrian Mariappa

46'

A. Gray← Deulofeu

46'

D. Janmaat← R. Pereyra

47'

63'

66'

69'

72'

J. Seri← T. Ream

75'

Kiko Femenía↳ A. Gray

78'

Domingos Quina← E. Capoue

81'

A. Schürrle← R. Babel

87'

K. McDonald← T. Cairney

90'

José Holebas

90'

Cyrus Christie

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordFulham

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots17

6Corners4

12Fouls5

Shots

15Total Shots17

7On Target7

1Off Target3

7Blocked7

12Inside Box15

3Outside Box2

Passing

46%Possession54%

462Total Passes531

376Accurate Passes460

81%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

6Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls5

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0