Watford 0–2 Brighton: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Brighton

A. Webster 83'

N. Maupay 44'

2/12/2022

Premier League · Round 25Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Watford37%

×Draw26%

Brighton37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchBrighton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.33

Watford

1.35

Brighton

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 146 away

1.20

creates per match

1.08

1.58

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Watford

1.20

Brighton

1.08

allows per match

Watford

1.58

Brighton

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Brighton+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Brighton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Watford or draw

63%

Watford or Brighton

74%

Draw or Brighton

63%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

17%

Brighton wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

74%

Watford 2+ goals

39%

Watford 3+ goals

15%

Brighton 1+ goals

74%

Brighton 2+ goals

38%

Brighton 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

51%

Brighton (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

Brighton away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.51 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.20 + Brighton defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.35

Brighton attack 1.08 + Watford defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Watford scores more

37%

level

26%

Brighton scores more

37%

Watford at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

A. Webster

Brighton · D

8.0

Match Events

25'

Lewis Dunk

44'

N. Maupay↳ T. Lamptey

46'

I. Sarr← J. Kucka

46'

I. Louza← E. Kayembe

56'

Emmanuel Dennis

64'

A. Mac Allister← P. Groß

64'

Y. Bissouma← D. Welbeck

65'

Hassane Kamara

70'

João Pedro← T. Cleverley

75'

83'

90+2'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordBrighton

Overview

35%Possession65%

9Total Shots11

4Corners5

16Fouls9

Shots

9Total Shots11

1On Target6

5Off Target2

3Blocked3

6Inside Box10

3Outside Box1

Passing

35%Possession65%

315Total Passes592

216Accurate Passes469

69%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1