Watford 3–2 Aston Villa: Result & Stats

Watford

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Aston Villa

J. Hernández 67'

I. Sarr 42'

E. Dennis 10'

D. Ings 90+7' (pen)

J. McGinn 70'

8/14/2021

Premier League · Round 1Vicarage Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 114+ matches

Watford39%

×Draw26%

Aston Villa35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatfordExpected goals in this matchAston Villa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.31

Watford

1.38

Aston Villa

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 145 away

1.20

creates per match

1.03

1.58

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Watford

1.20

Aston Villa

1.03

allows per match

Watford

1.58

Aston Villa

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watford+0.00on par

Aston Villa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watford ↓

Aston Villa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Watford or draw

65%

Watford or Aston Villa

74%

Draw or Aston Villa

61%

Winning margin

Watford wins by 2+

18%

Aston Villa wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Watford 1+ goals

75%

Watford 2+ goals

40%

Watford 3+ goals

16%

Aston Villa 1+ goals

73%

Aston Villa 2+ goals

38%

Aston Villa 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Watford (draw refunded)

52%

Aston Villa (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watford at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.58 · 114 matches

Aston Villa away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.55 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watford attack 1.20 + Aston Villa defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.38

Aston Villa attack 1.03 + Watford defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Watford scores more

39%

level

26%

Aston Villa scores more

35%

Watford at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

E. Dennis

Watford · F

8.2

Match Events

10'

E. Dennis

23'

Juraj Kucka

42'

I. Sarr↳ E. Dennis

46'

J. Ramsey← M. Targett

54'

Tyrone Mings

55'

Ken Sema

60'

L. Bailey← A. El Ghazi

66'

J. Hernández← E. Dennis

67'

J. Hernández↳ T. Cleverley

69'

D. Gosling← J. Kucka

70'

J. McGinn↳ L. Bailey

72'

Bertrand Traoré← E. Buendía

79'

T. Deeney← T. Cleverley

86'

Oghenekaro Etebo

90+7'

D. IngsPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WatfordAston

Overview

38%Possession62%

13Total Shots11

2Corners4

18Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots11

7On Target2

4Off Target6

2Blocked3

9Inside Box4

4Outside Box7

Passing

38%Possession62%

317Total Passes508

234Accurate Passes435

74%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls13

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2