Waterhouse 1–1 Molynes United: Result & Stats

Waterhouse

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Molynes United

2/2/2025

Premier League · Round 22Drewsland Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Waterhouse48%

×Draw26%

Molynes United26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaterhouseExpected goals in this matchMolynes United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.02

Waterhouse

1.50

Molynes United

1.02

Waterhouse creates 47% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 97 away

1.39

creates per match

1.05

0.98

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Waterhouse

1.39

Molynes United

1.05

allows per match

Waterhouse

0.98

Molynes United

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Waterhouse+0.00on par

Molynes United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterhouse ↓

Molynes United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Waterhouse or draw

74%

Waterhouse or Molynes United

74%

Draw or Molynes United

52%

Winning margin

Waterhouse wins by 2+

24%

Molynes United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Waterhouse 1+ goals

78%

Waterhouse 2+ goals

44%

Waterhouse 3+ goals

19%

Molynes United 1+ goals

64%

Molynes United 2+ goals

27%

Molynes United 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Waterhouse (draw refunded)

65%

Molynes United (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterhouse at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.98 · 104 matches

Molynes United away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.60 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterhouse attack 1.39 + Molynes United defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.50

Molynes United attack 1.05 + Waterhouse defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Waterhouse scores more

48%

level

26%

Molynes United scores more

26%

Waterhouse at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Waterhouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff