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Waterhouse vs Dunbeholden — Premier League 2019

Waterhouse
Waterhouse
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Dunbeholden
Dunbeholden
5/6/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 39Waterhouse Mini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 101+ matches

Waterhouse46%
×Draw27%
Dunbeholden27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waterhouse
1.38
Dunbeholden
1.00

Waterhouse creates 38% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 101 away

creates per match

Waterhouse
1.39
Dunbeholden
1.02

allows per match

Waterhouse
0.98
Dunbeholden
1.37

finishing

Waterhouse+0.00on par
Dunbeholden+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterhouse ↓

Dunbeholden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Waterhouse or draw
73%
Waterhouse or Dunbeholden
73%
Draw or Dunbeholden
54%

Winning margin

Waterhouse wins by 2+
22%
Dunbeholden wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Waterhouse 1+ goals
75%
Waterhouse 2+ goals
40%
Waterhouse 3+ goals
16%
Dunbeholden 1+ goals
63%
Dunbeholden 2+ goals
26%
Dunbeholden 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Waterhouse (draw refunded)
63%
Dunbeholden (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterhouse at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.98 · 104 matches

Dunbeholden away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.37 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterhouse attack 1.39 + Dunbeholden defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.38

Dunbeholden attack 1.02 + Waterhouse defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Waterhouse scores more
46%
level
27%
Dunbeholden scores more
27%

Waterhouse at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Waterhouse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Waterhouse 4–0 Dunbeholden

Waterhouse beat Dunbeholden 4-0 in Premier League on May 6, 2026.

The match was played at Waterhouse Mini Stadium in Kingston.