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Waterhouse vs Arnett Gardens — Premier League 2019

Waterhouse
Waterhouse
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Arnett Gardens
Arnett Gardens
4/27/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 38Drewsland Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Waterhouse36%
×Draw26%
Arnett Gardens38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waterhouse
1.29
Arnett Gardens
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 104 home / 103 away

creates per match

Waterhouse
1.39
Arnett Gardens
1.71

allows per match

Waterhouse
0.98
Arnett Gardens
1.19

finishing

Waterhouse+0.00on par
Arnett Gardens+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterhouse ↓

Arnett Gardens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Waterhouse or draw
62%
Waterhouse or Arnett Gardens
74%
Draw or Arnett Gardens
64%

Winning margin

Waterhouse wins by 2+
16%
Arnett Gardens wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Waterhouse 1+ goals
72%
Waterhouse 2+ goals
37%
Waterhouse 3+ goals
14%
Arnett Gardens 1+ goals
74%
Arnett Gardens 2+ goals
39%
Arnett Gardens 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Waterhouse (draw refunded)
48%
Arnett Gardens (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterhouse at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.98 · 104 matches

Arnett Gardens away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterhouse attack 1.39 + Arnett Gardens defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.29

Arnett Gardens attack 1.71 + Waterhouse defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Waterhouse scores more
36%
level
26%
Arnett Gardens scores more
38%

Arnett Gardens at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Arnett Gardens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Waterhouse vs Arnett Gardens

Arnett Gardens beat Waterhouse 2-0 in Premier League on April 27, 2025.

The match was played at Drewsland Stadium in Kingston.