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Waterford W vs Glentoran BU W — All-Island Cup - Women 2026

Waterford W
Waterford W
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 4
Glentoran BU W
Glentoran BU W
E. O'Brien 75'
J. Foy 27'
E. Wilson 22', 14'
R. Rogan 19'
5/24/2025All-Island Cup - WomenAll-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 2Waterford Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Waterford W10%
×Draw12%
Glentoran BU W79%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waterford W
1.25
Glentoran BU W
3.58

Glentoran BU W creates 186% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Waterford W
1.00
Glentoran BU W
3.17

allows per match

Waterford W
4.00
Glentoran BU W
1.50

finishing

Waterford W+0.00on par
Glentoran BU W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford W ↓

Glentoran BU W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–37%
0–46%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–47%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Waterford W or draw
21%
Waterford W or Glentoran BU W
88%
Draw or Glentoran BU W
90%

Winning margin

Waterford W wins by 2+
3%
Glentoran BU W wins by 2+
61%

Team goals

Waterford W 1+ goals
71%
Waterford W 2+ goals
36%
Waterford W 3+ goals
13%
Glentoran BU W 1+ goals
97%
Glentoran BU W 2+ goals
86%
Glentoran BU W 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

Waterford W (draw refunded)
11%
Glentoran BU W (draw refunded)
89%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Glentoran BU W away — creates 3.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford W attack 1.00 + Glentoran BU W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Glentoran BU W attack 3.17 + Waterford W defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 3.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Waterford W scores more
10%
level
12%
Glentoran BU W scores more
79%

Glentoran BU W at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Glentoran BU W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
E. Wilson
19'
R. Rogan
22'
E. Wilson
27'
J. Foy
75'
E. O'Brien

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Waterford W vs Glentoran BU W

Glentoran BU W beat Waterford W 4-1 in All-Island Cup - Women on May 24, 2025.

Goals: E. Wilson (14', 22'), R. Rogan (19'), J. Foy (27'), E. O'Brien (75').

The match was played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Waterford.