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Waterford W vs Athlone WFC W — All-Island Cup - Women 2026

Waterford W
Waterford W
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Athlone WFC W
Athlone WFC W
K. Brady 81', 41'
H. Donegan 58', 49'
6/7/2025All-Island Cup - WomenAll-Island Cup - Women · Group Stage - 3Waterford Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Waterford W12%
×Draw15%
Athlone WFC W72%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waterford W
1.11
Athlone WFC W
2.83

Athlone WFC W creates 155% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

Waterford W
1.00
Athlone WFC W
1.67

allows per match

Waterford W
4.00
Athlone WFC W
1.22

finishing

Waterford W+0.00on par
Athlone WFC W+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford W ↓

Athlone WFC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–38%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Waterford W or draw
28%
Waterford W or Athlone WFC W
85%
Draw or Athlone WFC W
88%

Winning margin

Waterford W wins by 2+
4%
Athlone WFC W wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Waterford W 1+ goals
67%
Waterford W 2+ goals
30%
Waterford W 3+ goals
10%
Athlone WFC W 1+ goals
94%
Athlone WFC W 2+ goals
77%
Athlone WFC W 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Waterford W (draw refunded)
15%
Athlone WFC W (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 4.00 · 3 matches

Athlone WFC W away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford W attack 1.00 + Athlone WFC W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Athlone WFC W attack 1.67 + Waterford W defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Waterford W scores more
12%
level
15%
Athlone WFC W scores more
72%

Athlone WFC W at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Athlone WFC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
K. Brady
49'
H. Donegan
58'
H. Donegan
81'
K. Brady

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

All-Island Cup - Women: Waterford W 0–4 Athlone WFC W

Athlone WFC W beat Waterford W 4-0 in All-Island Cup - Women on June 7, 2025.

Goals: K. Brady (41', 81'), H. Donegan (49', 58').

The match was played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Waterford.