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Waterford vs UCD — Premier Division 2026

Waterford
Waterford
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
UCD
UCD
M. O'Connor 52'
Z. Elbouzedi 48'
G. Poynton 45' (pen)
S. Duggan 23'
J. Keaney 85' (pen), 32' (pen)
10/25/2019Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 36Waterford Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Waterford60%
×Draw22%
UCD19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waterford
1.96
UCD
0.99

Waterford creates 98% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 55 away

creates per match

Waterford
1.26
UCD
0.60

allows per match

Waterford
1.39
UCD
2.67

finishing

Waterford+0.00on par
UCD+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

UCD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Waterford or draw
81%
Waterford or UCD
78%
Draw or UCD
40%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+
36%
UCD wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals
86%
Waterford 2+ goals
58%
Waterford 3+ goals
31%
UCD 1+ goals
63%
UCD 2+ goals
26%
UCD 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)
76%
UCD (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 92 matches

UCD away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.67 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 1.26 + UCD defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

UCD attack 0.60 + Waterford defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Waterford scores more
60%
level
22%
UCD scores more
19%

Waterford at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Waterford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
K. Lynch
23'
S. Duggan
32'
J. KeaneyPenalty
45'
L. Scales
45'
G. PoyntonPenalty
47'
H. McEvoy
48'
Z. Elbouzedi
52'
M. O'Connor
85'
J. KeaneyPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Waterford 4 – 2 UCD

Waterford beat UCD 4-2 in Premier Division on October 25, 2019.

Goals: S. Duggan (23'), J. Keaney (32' pen, 85' pen), G. Poynton (45' pen), Z. Elbouzedi (48'), M. O'Connor (52').

The match was played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.