Waterford 7–0 Treaty United: Result & Stats

Waterford

FT

7 – 0

HT: 5 – 0

Treaty United

T. Oluwa 90+5'

S. Griffin 55', 34'

R. Coughlan 43'

T. Sobowale 40'

G. Phillips 38'

C. Conn-Clarke 16'

6/2/2023

First Division · Round 17Waterford Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Waterford54%

×Draw23%

Treaty United23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaterfordExpected goals in this matchTreaty United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.13

Waterford

1.83

Treaty United

1.13

Waterford creates 62% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 99 away

2.28

creates per match

1.13

1.14

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Waterford

2.28

Treaty United

1.13

allows per match

Waterford

1.14

Treaty United

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Waterford+0.00on par

Treaty United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

Treaty United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Waterford or draw

77%

Waterford or Treaty United

77%

Draw or Treaty United

46%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+

30%

Treaty United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals

84%

Waterford 2+ goals

54%

Waterford 3+ goals

28%

Treaty United 1+ goals

68%

Treaty United 2+ goals

31%

Treaty United 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)

70%

Treaty United (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

Treaty United away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 2.28 + Treaty United defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.83

Treaty United attack 1.13 + Waterford defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Waterford scores more

54%

level

23%

Treaty United scores more

23%

Waterford at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Waterford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

18'

31'

34'

38'

40'

43'

55'

56'

E. Nolan← G. Phillips

56'

R. Mansfield← R. Burke

56'

T. Oluwa← R. Coughlan

61'

M. Coughlan← C. Barry

61'

S. Kirkland← A. Byrne

64'

D. Larkin← B. Baggley

64'

R. Akachukwu← S. Griffin

77'

J. Quinlivan← D. George

77'

N. Kozlowski← C. Kelly

83'

D. Collins

90+5'

T. Oluwa

Waterford

Treaty

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Phillips

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Coughlan

Parsons

Manager: K. Long

56'▲E. Nolan←▼G. Phillips

56'▲R. Mansfield←▼R. Burke

56'▲T. Oluwa←▼R. Coughlan

64'▲D. Larkin←▼B. Baggley

64'▲R. Akachukwu←▼S. Griffin

Waterford substitutes

NolanMansfieldOluwaLarkinAkachukwuQueallyPowerConnorDonaghy

Manager: T. Barrett

18'▲D. Collins←▼A. Spain

61'▲M. Coughlan←▼C. Barry

61'▲S. Kirkland←▼A. Byrne

77'▲J. Quinlivan←▼D. George

77'▲N. Kozlowski←▼C. Kelly

Treaty United substitutes

CollinsCoughlanKirklandQuinlivanKozlowskiCoadyLynch

Match Recap: Waterford vs Treaty United

Waterford beat Treaty United 7-0 in First Division on June 2, 2023.

Goals: C. Conn-Clarke (16'), S. Griffin (34', 55'), G. Phillips (38'), T. Sobowale (40'), R. Coughlan (43'), T. Oluwa (90+5').

The match was played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Waterford.

Waterford vs Treaty United — First Division 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Waterford vs Treaty United