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Waterford vs Shelbourne — Premier Division 2026

Waterford
Waterford
Preview
18:45
Shelbourne
Shelbourne
7/31/2026Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 26Regional Sports Centre
Big match
38%
Waterford
model favours
38%24%38%

Waterford are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Waterford38%
×Draw24%
Shelbourne38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waterford
1.49
Shelbourne
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Waterford
1.53
Shelbourne
1.39

allows per match

Waterford
1.57
Shelbourne
1.45

finishing

Waterford+0.14scores more
Shelbourne+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 60No: 4060%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

Shelbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Waterford or draw
62%
Waterford or Shelbourne
76%
Draw or Shelbourne
62%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+
18%
Shelbourne wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals
77%
Waterford 2+ goals
44%
Waterford 3+ goals
19%
Shelbourne 1+ goals
77%
Shelbourne 2+ goals
43%
Shelbourne 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)
50%
Shelbourne (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.57 · 6 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.45 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 1.53 + Shelbourne defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.49

Shelbourne attack 1.39 + Waterford defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Waterford scores more
38%
level
24%
Shelbourne scores more
38%

Waterford at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Waterford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Waterford score first in only 25% of matches
  • Shelbourne are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • Even after scoring first, Shelbourne win only 41%
  • Shelbourne have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Style contrast — Waterford play Direct / counter-attacking, Shelbourne Attack-heavy
  • 36% of Waterford’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Waterford
Direct / counter-attacking
Shelbourne
Attack-heavy
45%Possession56%
66%Pass accuracy80%
10.9Shots14.5
1.14xGBiggest gap1.73
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
WaterfordShelbourne

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

1
Waterford
2
Draws
7
Shelbourne
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 60%
1–21–11–22–21–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Waterford
DWDWW
Shelbourne
WDDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Waterford face Shelbourne (Premier Division)

Premier Division returns with Waterford hosting Shelbourne. Match starts July 31, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Waterford host Shelbourne at Regional Sports Centre.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.