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Shelbourne vs Waterford — Premier Division 2019

Shelbourne
Shelbourne
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Waterford
Waterford
5/5/2025Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 14Tolka Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Shelbourne61%
×Draw21%
Waterford18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shelbourne
2.04
Waterford
1.01

Shelbourne creates 102% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Shelbourne
2.09
Waterford
0.93

allows per match

Shelbourne
1.09
Waterford
2.00

finishing

Shelbourne-0.29scores less
Waterford+0.27scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shelbourne ↓

Waterford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Shelbourne or draw
82%
Shelbourne or Waterford
79%
Draw or Waterford
39%

Winning margin

Shelbourne wins by 2+
37%
Waterford wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Shelbourne 1+ goals
87%
Shelbourne 2+ goals
60%
Shelbourne 3+ goals
33%
Waterford 1+ goals
64%
Waterford 2+ goals
27%
Waterford 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Shelbourne (draw refunded)
77%
Waterford (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shelbourne at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.09 · 5 matches

Waterford away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shelbourne attack 2.09 + Waterford defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

Waterford attack 0.93 + Shelbourne defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Shelbourne scores more
61%
level
21%
Waterford scores more
18%

Shelbourne at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shelbourne vs Waterford

Waterford beat Shelbourne 1-0 in Premier Division on May 5, 2025.

The match was played at Tolka Park in Dublin.