Waterford 0–1 Shelbourne: Result & Stats

Waterford

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Shelbourne

W. Jarvis 55'

6/13/2024

Premier Division · Round 21Waterford Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Waterford38%

×Draw24%

Shelbourne38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaterfordExpected goals in this matchShelbourne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

1.48

Waterford

1.49

Shelbourne

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

1.53

creates per match

1.39

1.57

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Waterford

1.53

Shelbourne

1.39

allows per match

Waterford

1.57

Shelbourne

1.45

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

Waterford+0.14scores more

Shelbourne+0.21scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

Shelbourne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Waterford or draw

62%

Waterford or Shelbourne

76%

Draw or Shelbourne

62%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+

18%

Shelbourne wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals

77%

Waterford 2+ goals

44%

Waterford 3+ goals

19%

Shelbourne 1+ goals

77%

Shelbourne 2+ goals

43%

Shelbourne 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)

50%

Shelbourne (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.57 · 6 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.45 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 1.53 + Shelbourne defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.49

Shelbourne attack 1.39 + Waterford defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Waterford scores more

38%

level

24%

Shelbourne scores more

38%

Waterford at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Waterford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36

W. Jarvis

Shelbourne · M

8.2

Match Events

30'

N. O'Keeffe← R. McDonald

35'

Dean McMenamy

55'

W. Jarvis

61'

Ben McCormack

63'

M. Smith← L. Burt

65'

C. Evans← C. Pattisson

71'

Grant Horton

72'

J. O'Sullivan← E. Caffrey

73'

John O'Sullivan

75'

R. McCourt← G. Horton

76'

81'

84'

84'

85'

S. Griffin← T. Wilson

90+1'

Darragh Leahy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WaterfordShelbourne

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots9

2Corners2

17Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots9

1On Target5

5Off Target2

5Blocked2

4Inside Box3

7Outside Box6

Passing

52%Possession48%

431Total Passes400

332Accurate Passes319

77%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls13

5Yellow Cards4

2Offsides4