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Waterford vs Shelbourne — Premier Division 2019

Waterford
Waterford
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Shelbourne
Shelbourne
2/16/2024Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 1Waterford Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Waterford33%
×Draw28%
Shelbourne39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waterford
1.13
Shelbourne
1.25

Shelbourne creates 11% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 92 away

creates per match

Waterford
1.24
Shelbourne
1.13

allows per match

Waterford
1.38
Shelbourne
1.01

finishing

Waterford+0.00on par
Shelbourne+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

Shelbourne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Waterford or draw
61%
Waterford or Shelbourne
72%
Draw or Shelbourne
67%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+
13%
Shelbourne wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals
68%
Waterford 2+ goals
31%
Waterford 3+ goals
11%
Shelbourne 1+ goals
71%
Shelbourne 2+ goals
36%
Shelbourne 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)
46%
Shelbourne (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.38 · 94 matches

Shelbourne away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.01 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 1.24 + Shelbourne defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.13

Shelbourne attack 1.13 + Waterford defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Waterford scores more
33%
level
28%
Shelbourne scores more
39%

Shelbourne at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shelbourne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Waterford vs Shelbourne

Waterford and Shelbourne drew 1-1 in Premier Division on February 16, 2024.

The match was played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Waterford.