Waterford 1–2 Shamrock Rovers: Result & Stats

Waterford

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Shamrock Rovers

T. Lonergan 90'

M. Healy 72'

J. Honohan 28'

9/22/2025

Premier Division · Round 30Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Waterford33%

×Draw25%

Shamrock Rovers42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaterfordExpected goals in this matchShamrock Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.51

Waterford

1.33

Shamrock Rovers

1.51

Shamrock Rovers creates 14% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

1.69

creates per match

1.41

1.61

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Waterford

1.69

Shamrock Rovers

1.41

allows per match

Waterford

1.61

Shamrock Rovers

0.98

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

Waterford+0.11scores more

Shamrock Rovers-0.41scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

Shamrock Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Waterford or draw

58%

Waterford or Shamrock Rovers

75%

Draw or Shamrock Rovers

67%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+

15%

Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals

74%

Waterford 2+ goals

38%

Waterford 3+ goals

15%

Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals

78%

Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals

44%

Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)

45%

Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.61 · 5 matches

Shamrock Rovers away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.98 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 1.69 + Shamrock Rovers defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.33

Shamrock Rovers attack 1.41 + Waterford defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Waterford scores more

33%

level

25%

Shamrock Rovers scores more

42%

Shamrock Rovers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Shamrock Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

A. Matthews

Shamrock Rovers · M

7.9

Match Events

27'

Kacper Radkowski

28'

J. Honohan↳ D. Cleary

39'

James Olayinka

40'

Cory O'Sullivan

49'

Samuel Glenfield

57'

T. Lonergan← T. Coyle

68'

Josh Miles

70'

D. Watts← D. Mandroiu

71'

G. Burke← J. McGovern

71'

R. Gaffney← A. McEneff

72'

M. Healy↳ A. Matthews

75'

Jesse Dempsey

81'

K. White← J. Dempsey

87'

S. Kavanagh← J. Honohan

87'

G. O'Neill← M. Healy

88'

M. Faal← J. Miles

90'

T. Lonergan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WaterfordShamrock

Overview

45%Possession55%

10Total Shots14

5Corners5

12Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots14

2On Target5

4Off Target4

4Blocked5

7Inside Box8

3Outside Box6

Passing

45%Possession55%

390Total Passes488

304Accurate Passes394

78%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls10

5Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4