Waterford 2–2 Longford Town: Result & Stats

Waterford

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Longford Town

R. Coughlan 21' (pen)

R. Idowu 6'

B. O'Brien-Whitmarsh 52' (pen)

G. Armstrong 18'

7/7/2023

First Division · Round 22Waterford Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Waterford54%

×Draw22%

Longford Town23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaterfordExpected goals in this matchLongford Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.17

Waterford

1.91

Longford Town

1.17

Waterford creates 63% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 107 away

2.28

creates per match

1.21

1.14

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Waterford

2.28

Longford Town

1.21

allows per match

Waterford

1.14

Longford Town

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Waterford+0.00on par

Longford Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

Longford Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Waterford or draw

77%

Waterford or Longford Town

78%

Draw or Longford Town

46%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+

31%

Longford Town wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals

85%

Waterford 2+ goals

57%

Waterford 3+ goals

30%

Longford Town 1+ goals

69%

Longford Town 2+ goals

33%

Longford Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)

70%

Longford Town (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

Longford Town away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.54 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 2.28 + Longford Town defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.91

Longford Town attack 1.21 + Waterford defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Waterford scores more

54%

level

22%

Longford Town scores more

23%

Waterford at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Waterford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

R. Idowu

18'

G. Armstrong

21'

R. CoughlanPenalty

23'

30'

38'

50'

52'

B. O'Brien-WhitmarshPenalty

54'

K. Cantwell← R. Akachukwu

55'

B. Whitmarsh

63'

D. Daly← K. OConnor

63'

M. Boudiaf← S. Elworthy

66'

S. Atakayi-Mantata← S. Griffin

72'

L. Temple

80'

C. Măgerușan← A. Walsh

80'

J. Giurgi← J. Adeyemo

81'

C. Pattison← C. Parsons

85'

M. Boudiaf

Waterford

Longford

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: K. Long

54'▲K. Cantwell←▼R. Akachukwu

66'▲S. Atakayi-Mantata←▼S. Griffin

81'▲C. Pattison←▼C. Parsons

Waterford substitutes

CantwellAtakayi-MantataPattisonLarkinNolanConnorMansfieldOluwaPerry

Manager: S. Henderson

63'▲D. Daly←▼K. OConnor

63'▲M. Boudiaf←▼S. Elworthy

80'▲C. Măgerușan←▼A. Walsh

80'▲J. Giurgi←▼J. Adeyemo

Longford Town substitutes

DalyBoudiafMăgerușanGiurgiHodanuO'BrienDoonaHarringtonIbrahim

First Division: Waterford 2–2 Longford Town

Waterford and Longford Town drew 2-2 in First Division on July 7, 2023.

Goals: R. Idowu (6'), G. Armstrong (18'), R. Coughlan (21' pen), B. O'Brien-Whitmarsh (52' pen).

The match was played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Waterford.

Waterford vs Longford Town — First Division 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First Division: Waterford 2–2 Longford Town