Waterford 4–1 Longford Town: Result & Stats

Waterford

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Longford Town

J. Martin 83', 52'

C. Kavanagh 70', 36'

D. Williams 47'

8/20/2021

Premier Division · Round 25Waterford Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Waterford54%

×Draw24%

Longford Town22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaterfordExpected goals in this matchLongford Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.00

Waterford

1.71

Longford Town

1.00

Waterford creates 71% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 18 away

1.26

creates per match

0.61

1.39

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Waterford

1.26

Longford Town

0.61

allows per match

Waterford

1.39

Longford Town

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Waterford+0.00on par

Longford Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

Longford Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Waterford or draw

78%

Waterford or Longford Town

76%

Draw or Longford Town

46%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+

30%

Longford Town wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals

82%

Waterford 2+ goals

51%

Waterford 3+ goals

24%

Longford Town 1+ goals

63%

Longford Town 2+ goals

26%

Longford Town 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)

71%

Longford Town (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 92 matches

Longford Town away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 1.26 + Longford Town defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.71

Longford Town attack 0.61 + Waterford defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Waterford scores more

54%

level

24%

Longford Town scores more

22%

Waterford at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Waterford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

M. O'Brien

23'

J. Stafford

36'

C. Kavanagh

46'

A. Dervin← D. Zambra

46'

K. Chambers← A. McNally

47'

D. Williams

52'

J. Martin

54'

C. Davis← M. O’Brien

58'

P. Mutswunguma← S. Griffin

70'

C. Kavanagh

78'

D. Power

81'

I. Tshipamba← C. Kavanagh

82'

83'

86'

86'

90+2'

Waterford

Longford

1

12

3

5

21

▼

McNally

6

▼

Zambra

7

Grimes

14

Nugent

17

▼

O’Brien

8

Manley

10

⚽

Williams

1

Murphy

46

▼

3

2

6

44

7

▼

Griffin

14

O'Keeffe

12

⚽2

▼

Martin

10

⚽2

▼

Kavanagh

19

Stafford

Manager: M. Bircham

58'▲P. Mutswunguma←▼S. Griffin

81'▲I. Tshipamba←▼C. Kavanagh

86'▲G. Forrest←▼E. Nolan

86'▲J. Dupree←▼J. Martin

Waterford substitutes

23Mutswunguma21Tshipamba5Forrest45Dupree13Connor20Halford15Milambo17Hutchison

Manager: D. Doyle

46'▲A. Dervin←▼D. Zambra

46'▲K. Chambers←▼A. McNally

54'▲C. Davis←▼M. O’Brien

Longford Town substitutes

16Dervin19Chambers25Davis4Robinson9Dobbs15McCabe22Manley24Warfield30Kelly