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Waterford vs Kerry — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Waterford
Waterford
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Kerry
Kerry
E. McLaughlin 58'
C. Carty 45'
T. Lonergan 10'
S. Mcgrath 56'
C. Murphy 20' (pen)
1/20/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Waterford43%
×Draw19%
Kerry38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waterford
2.67
Kerry
2.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Waterford
2.33
Kerry
2.67

allows per match

Waterford
2.33
Kerry
3.00

finishing

Waterford+0.00on par
Kerry+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

85%Yes
  • Yes85
  • No15

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

Kerry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–25%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
89%11%3.5
75%25%4.5
57%43%

Double chance

Waterford or draw
62%
Waterford or Kerry
81%
Draw or Kerry
57%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+
26%
Kerry wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals
93%
Waterford 2+ goals
74%
Waterford 3+ goals
49%
Kerry 1+ goals
92%
Kerry 2+ goals
71%
Kerry 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)
53%
Kerry (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Kerry away — creates 2.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 2.33 + Kerry defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.67

Kerry attack 2.67 + Waterford defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Waterford scores more
43%
level
19%
Kerry scores more
38%

Waterford at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Waterford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
T. Lonergan
20'
C. MurphyPenalty
45'
C. Carty
56'
S. Mcgrath
58'
E. McLaughlin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Waterford 3–2 Kerry

Waterford beat Kerry 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on January 20, 2026.

Goals: T. Lonergan (10'), C. Murphy (20' pen), C. Carty (45'), S. Mcgrath (56'), E. McLaughlin (58').