Waterford 4–1 Finn Harps: Result & Stats

Waterford

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Finn Harps

Junior Quitirna 90+5', 69'

J. Martin 90+3'

P. Patterson 19'

T. Owolabi 76' (pen)

10/15/2021

Premier Division · Round 31Waterford Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Waterford49%

×Draw25%

Finn Harps26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaterfordExpected goals in this matchFinn Harps

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.12

Waterford

1.63

Finn Harps

1.12

Waterford creates 46% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 62 away

1.26

creates per match

0.85

1.39

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Waterford

1.26

Finn Harps

0.85

allows per match

Waterford

1.39

Finn Harps

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Waterford+0.00on par

Finn Harps+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

Finn Harps →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Waterford or draw

74%

Waterford or Finn Harps

75%

Draw or Finn Harps

51%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+

26%

Finn Harps wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals

80%

Waterford 2+ goals

48%

Waterford 3+ goals

22%

Finn Harps 1+ goals

67%

Finn Harps 2+ goals

31%

Finn Harps 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)

65%

Finn Harps (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 92 matches

Finn Harps away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.00 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 1.26 + Finn Harps defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Finn Harps attack 0.85 + Waterford defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Waterford scores more

49%

level

25%

Finn Harps scores more

26%

Waterford at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Waterford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

P. Patterson

34'

M. McGinley← G. Doherty

41'

A. Wordsworth

46'

J. Dunleavy← D. Hawkins

60'

A. Foley

69'

Junior Quitirna

72'

B. Murphy

72'

M. Connor← S. Griffin

74'

G. Halford

76'

M. Timlin← K. O’Sullivan

76'

T. OwolabiPenalty

80'

89'

90+3'

90+5'

Waterford

Finn

40

▼

5

16

3

4

22

14

▼

Coyle

17

▼

Hawkins

19

Foley

7

▼

O’Sulliva

45

⚽

1

20

46

8

6

44

⚽

Patterson

7

▼

Griffin

14

O'Keeffe

11

⚽2

Quitirna

12

⚽

Martin

19

Stafford

Manager: M. Bircham

72'▲M. Connor←▼S. Griffin

Waterford substitutes

13Connor3Evans45Dupree5Forrest15Milambo16Green

Manager: O. Horgan

34'▲M. McGinley←▼G. Doherty

46'▲J. Dunleavy←▼D. Hawkins

76'▲M. Timlin←▼K. O’Sullivan

89'▲L. Rudden←▼M. Coyle

Finn Harps substitutes

1McGinley8Dunleavy10Timlin12Rudden21Doherty25McGarvey28Seymore31Logue-Cunningham

Premier Division: Waterford 4–1 Finn Harps

Waterford beat Finn Harps 4-1 in Premier Division on October 15, 2021.

Goals: P. Patterson (19'), Junior Quitirna (69', 90+5'), T. Owolabi (76' pen), J. Martin (90+3').

The match was played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Waterford.

Waterford vs Finn Harps — Premier Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Premier Division: Waterford 4–1 Finn Harps