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Waterford vs Cork City — Premier Division 2019

Waterford
Waterford
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cork City
Cork City
7/11/2025Premier DivisionPremier Division · Round 24Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Waterford51%
×Draw25%
Cork City24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Waterford
1.65
Cork City
1.05

Waterford creates 57% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 63 away

creates per match

Waterford
1.24
Cork City
0.73

allows per match

Waterford
1.38
Cork City
2.05

finishing

Waterford+0.00on par
Cork City+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

Cork City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Waterford or draw
76%
Waterford or Cork City
75%
Draw or Cork City
49%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+
27%
Cork City wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals
81%
Waterford 2+ goals
49%
Waterford 3+ goals
23%
Cork City 1+ goals
65%
Cork City 2+ goals
28%
Cork City 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)
68%
Cork City (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.38 · 94 matches

Cork City away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.05 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 1.24 + Cork City defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.65

Cork City attack 0.73 + Waterford defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Waterford scores more
51%
level
25%
Cork City scores more
24%

Waterford at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Waterford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Division: Waterford 2–0 Cork City

Waterford beat Cork City 2-0 in Premier Division on July 11, 2025.

The match was played at Regional Sports Centre in Waterford.