Waterford 1–2 Cork City: Result & Stats

Waterford

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Cork City

Raúl Uche 90'

R. Keating 90+5' (pen)

C. Murphy 55'

9/9/2022

First Division · Round 31Waterford Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Waterford41%

×Draw25%

Cork City34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaterfordExpected goals in this matchCork City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.36

Waterford

1.51

Cork City

1.36

Waterford creates 11% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 58 away

2.28

creates per match

1.59

1.14

allows per match

0.74

creates per match

Waterford

2.28

Cork City

1.59

allows per match

Waterford

1.14

Cork City

0.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Waterford+0.00on par

Cork City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

Cork City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Waterford or draw

66%

Waterford or Cork City

75%

Draw or Cork City

59%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+

20%

Cork City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals

78%

Waterford 2+ goals

44%

Waterford 3+ goals

19%

Cork City 1+ goals

74%

Cork City 2+ goals

39%

Cork City 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)

54%

Cork City (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

Cork City away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.74 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 2.28 + Cork City defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.51

Cork City attack 1.59 + Waterford defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Waterford scores more

41%

level

25%

Cork City scores more

34%

Waterford at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Waterford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

J. Häkkinen← J. Honohan

32'

55'

57'

59'

75'

Raúl Uche← S. Griffin

77'

81'

84'

90'

90+5'

R. KeatingPenalty

Waterford

Cork

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: D. Searle

75'▲Raúl Uche←▼S. Griffin

84'▲O. Oseni←▼D. Power

Waterford substitutes

UcheOseniKavanaghWarrenMilamboThompsonEn-NeyahSobowaleStringer

Manager: C. Healy

20'▲J. Häkkinen←▼J. Honohan

81'▲M. Srbely←▼B. Coffey

Cork City substitutes

HäkkinenSrbelyMcGladeWalkerCorcoranDoonaO'ConnorBrittonKargbo

First Division: Waterford 1–2 Cork City

Cork City beat Waterford 2-1 in First Division on September 9, 2022.

Goals: C. Murphy (55'), Raúl Uche (90'), R. Keating (90+5' pen).

The match was played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Waterford.

Waterford vs Cork City — First Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First Division: Waterford 1–2 Cork City