Waterford 0–0 Cork City: Result & Stats

Waterford

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Cork City

8/8/2020

Premier Division · Round 7Waterford Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Waterford52%

×Draw24%

Cork City24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaterfordExpected goals in this matchCork City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.06

Waterford

1.67

Cork City

1.06

Waterford creates 58% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 60 away

1.26

creates per match

0.73

1.39

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Waterford

1.26

Cork City

0.73

allows per match

Waterford

1.39

Cork City

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Waterford+0.00on par

Cork City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

Cork City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Waterford or draw

76%

Waterford or Cork City

76%

Draw or Cork City

48%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+

28%

Cork City wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals

81%

Waterford 2+ goals

50%

Waterford 3+ goals

23%

Cork City 1+ goals

65%

Cork City 2+ goals

29%

Cork City 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)

68%

Cork City (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.39 · 92 matches

Cork City away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.07 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 1.26 + Cork City defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.67

Cork City attack 0.73 + Waterford defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Waterford scores more

52%

level

24%

Cork City scores more

24%

Waterford at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Waterford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

D. McGlade← D. OConnor

68'

W. Fitzgerald← M. O’Connor

70'

C. Bargary← C. Galvin

74'

S. Bone

89'

R. Hurley← R. Slevin

90+6'

H. Ochieng

Waterford

Cork

1

3

17

23

4

▼

Slevin

25

Kargbo

11

▼

Galvin

8

Coleman

10

▼

5

24

25

18

3

33

4

6

8

23

20

9

▼

O’Connor

11

Smith

Manager: J. Sheridan

68'▲W. Fitzgerald←▼M. O’Connor

Waterford substitutes

19Fitzgerald1Ryan10Longbottom35O'Keeffe16Power

Manager: N. Fenn

46'▲D. McGlade←▼D. OConnor

70'▲C. Bargary←▼C. Galvin

89'▲R. Hurley←▼R. Slevin

Cork City substitutes

7McGlade31Bargary14Hurley2Fleming21Bossin26Holland20Cummins