Waterford 4–2 Cobh Ramblers: Result & Stats

Waterford

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Cobh Ramblers

C. Stringer 90+2'

T. Sobowale 78', 50'

P. Patterson 34'

J. Larkin 37', 3'

5/13/2022

First Division · Round 16Waterford Regional Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Waterford56%

×Draw22%

Cobh Ramblers22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WaterfordExpected goals in this matchCobh Ramblers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.18

Waterford

1.99

Cobh Ramblers

1.18

Waterford creates 69% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 118 away

2.28

creates per match

1.22

1.14

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Waterford

2.28

Cobh Ramblers

1.22

allows per match

Waterford

1.14

Cobh Ramblers

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Waterford+0.00on par

Cobh Ramblers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Waterford ↓

Cobh Ramblers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Waterford or draw

78%

Waterford or Cobh Ramblers

78%

Draw or Cobh Ramblers

44%

Winning margin

Waterford wins by 2+

33%

Cobh Ramblers wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Waterford 1+ goals

86%

Waterford 2+ goals

59%

Waterford 3+ goals

32%

Cobh Ramblers 1+ goals

69%

Cobh Ramblers 2+ goals

33%

Cobh Ramblers 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Waterford (draw refunded)

71%

Cobh Ramblers (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Waterford at home — creates 2.28, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

Cobh Ramblers away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.70 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Waterford attack 2.28 + Cobh Ramblers defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.99

Cobh Ramblers attack 1.22 + Waterford defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Waterford scores more

56%

level

22%

Cobh Ramblers scores more

22%

Waterford at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Waterford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

34'

37'

50'

52'

56'

58'

Junior Quitirna← Y. En-Neyah

63'

C. Griffin← S. McGrath

73'

74'

78'

T. Sobowale

79'

J. O'Leary← L. Desmond

88'

C. Stringer← R. Idowu

90+1'

D. Power← R. Taylor

90+2'

C. Stringer

Waterford

Cobh

⚽2

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: I. Morris

58'▲Junior Quitirna←▼Y. En-Neyah

88'▲C. Stringer←▼R. Idowu

90+1'▲D. Power←▼R. Taylor

Waterford substitutes

QuitirnaStringerPowerKavanaghForrestMilamboJoshuaArisMartin

Manager: D. Murphy

63'▲C. Griffin←▼S. McGrath

79'▲J. O'Leary←▼L. Desmond

Cobh Ramblers substitutes

GriffinO'LearyO'RiordanBurkeWalshHegartyEguaiborO'Brien

Match Recap: Waterford vs Cobh Ramblers

Waterford beat Cobh Ramblers 4-2 in First Division on May 13, 2022.

Goals: J. Larkin (3', 37'), P. Patterson (34'), T. Sobowale (50', 78'), C. Stringer (90+2').

The match was played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Waterford.

Waterford vs Cobh Ramblers — First Division 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Waterford vs Cobh Ramblers