Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Watbot vs Uthai Thani — FA Cup 2018

Watbot
Watbot
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Uthai Thani
Uthai Thaniadvanced
11/30/2022FA CupFA Cup · Round of 32H2H Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Watbot24%
×Draw26%
Uthai Thani51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watbot
0.96
Uthai Thani
1.54

Uthai Thani creates 60% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Watbot
1.17
Uthai Thani
2.25

allows per match

Watbot
0.83
Uthai Thani
0.75

finishing

Watbot+0.00on par
Uthai Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watbot ↓

Uthai Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Watbot or draw
49%
Watbot or Uthai Thani
74%
Draw or Uthai Thani
76%

Winning margin

Watbot wins by 2+
8%
Uthai Thani wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Watbot 1+ goals
62%
Watbot 2+ goals
25%
Watbot 3+ goals
7%
Uthai Thani 1+ goals
79%
Uthai Thani 2+ goals
45%
Uthai Thani 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Watbot (draw refunded)
32%
Uthai Thani (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watbot at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Uthai Thani away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watbot attack 1.17 + Uthai Thani defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.96

Uthai Thani attack 2.25 + Watbot defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Watbot scores more
24%
level
26%
Uthai Thani scores more
51%

Uthai Thani at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Uthai Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Watbot 0–1 Uthai Thani

Uthai Thani beat Watbot 1-0 in FA Cup on November 30, 2022.

The match was played at H2H Sport Stadium in Wat Bot.