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Watbot vs Kanchanaburi — FA Cup 2018

Watbot
Watbot
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kanchanaburi
Kanchanaburiadvanced
2/28/2024FA CupFA Cup · Round of 16Phitsanulok Provincial Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Watbot45%
×Draw27%
Kanchanaburi29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Watbot
1.42
Kanchanaburi
1.08

Watbot creates 31% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Watbot
1.17
Kanchanaburi
1.33

allows per match

Watbot
0.83
Kanchanaburi
1.67

finishing

Watbot+0.00on par
Kanchanaburi+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watbot ↓

Kanchanaburi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Watbot or draw
71%
Watbot or Kanchanaburi
73%
Draw or Kanchanaburi
55%

Winning margin

Watbot wins by 2+
22%
Kanchanaburi wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Watbot 1+ goals
76%
Watbot 2+ goals
41%
Watbot 3+ goals
17%
Kanchanaburi 1+ goals
66%
Kanchanaburi 2+ goals
29%
Kanchanaburi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Watbot (draw refunded)
61%
Kanchanaburi (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watbot at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Kanchanaburi away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watbot attack 1.17 + Kanchanaburi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Kanchanaburi attack 1.33 + Watbot defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Watbot scores more
45%
level
27%
Kanchanaburi scores more
29%

Watbot at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Watbot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Watbot vs Kanchanaburi

Kanchanaburi beat Watbot 1-0 in FA Cup on February 28, 2024.

The match was played at Phitsanulok Provincial Sport Stadium in Phitsanulok.