Watbot 1–0 Kamphaeng Phet: Result & Stats

Watbot

1 – 0

Kamphaeng Phet

9/8/2024

League Cup · 2nd Qualifying RoundPhitsanulok Provincial Sport Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Watbot37%

×Draw20%

Kamphaeng Phet43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatbotExpected goals in this matchKamphaeng Phet

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

2.17

Watbot

2.00

Kamphaeng Phet

2.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

0.67

creates per match

2.33

2.00

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Watbot

0.67

Kamphaeng Phet

2.33

allows per match

Watbot

2.00

Kamphaeng Phet

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watbot+0.00on par

Kamphaeng Phet+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watbot ↓

Kamphaeng Phet →

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Watbot or draw

57%

Watbot or Kamphaeng Phet

80%

Draw or Kamphaeng Phet

63%

Winning margin

Watbot wins by 2+

20%

Kamphaeng Phet wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Watbot 1+ goals

86%

Watbot 2+ goals

59%

Watbot 3+ goals

32%

Kamphaeng Phet 1+ goals

89%

Kamphaeng Phet 2+ goals

64%

Kamphaeng Phet 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Watbot (draw refunded)

46%

Kamphaeng Phet (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Watbot at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Kamphaeng Phet away — creates 2.33, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Watbot attack 0.67 + Kamphaeng Phet defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Kamphaeng Phet attack 2.33 + Watbot defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Watbot scores more

37%

level

20%

Kamphaeng Phet scores more

43%

Kamphaeng Phet at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kamphaeng Phet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff