Watbot 3–2 Bankhai United: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Watbot

AET

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Bankhai United

11/8/2020

FA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Watbot50%

×Draw22%

Bankhai United28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatbotExpected goals in this matchBankhai United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.42

Watbot

1.96

Bankhai United

1.42

Watbot creates 38% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

1.17

creates per match

2.00

0.83

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Watbot

1.17

Bankhai United

2.00

allows per match

Watbot

0.83

Bankhai United

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watbot+0.00on par

Bankhai United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watbot ↓

Bankhai United →

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Watbot or draw

72%

Watbot or Bankhai United

78%

Draw or Bankhai United

50%

Winning margin

Watbot wins by 2+

28%

Bankhai United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Watbot 1+ goals

86%

Watbot 2+ goals

58%

Watbot 3+ goals

31%

Bankhai United 1+ goals

76%

Bankhai United 2+ goals

41%

Bankhai United 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Watbot (draw refunded)

64%

Bankhai United (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Watbot at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Bankhai United away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Watbot attack 1.17 + Bankhai United defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.96

Bankhai United attack 2.00 + Watbot defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Watbot scores more

50%

level

22%

Bankhai United scores more

28%

Watbot at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Watbot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff