Watanga 2–1 Wologizi: Result & Stats

Watanga

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Wologizi

11/2/2025

LFA First Division · Round 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Watanga57%

×Draw22%

Wologizi21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WatangaExpected goals in this matchWologizi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.13

Watanga

1.98

Wologizi

1.13

Watanga creates 75% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 14 away

1.95

creates per match

1.29

0.97

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Watanga

1.95

Wologizi

1.29

allows per match

Watanga

0.97

Wologizi

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Watanga+0.00on par

Wologizi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Watanga ↓

Wologizi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Watanga or draw

79%

Watanga or Wologizi

78%

Draw or Wologizi

43%

Winning margin

Watanga wins by 2+

34%

Wologizi wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Watanga 1+ goals

86%

Watanga 2+ goals

59%

Watanga 3+ goals

31%

Wologizi 1+ goals

68%

Wologizi 2+ goals

31%

Wologizi 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Watanga (draw refunded)

73%

Wologizi (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Watanga at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.97 · 75 matches

Wologizi away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Watanga attack 1.95 + Wologizi defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.98

Wologizi attack 1.29 + Watanga defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Watanga scores more

57%

level

22%

Wologizi scores more

21%

Watanga at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Watanga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff